By choosing tennis as your selected sport for betting, you have already given yourself an “edge” against those that bet on or offer odds on other sports. To utilize this “edge” to generate income consistently, however, you’ll need to know two fundamental principles first. Then apply the energy of mathematics.
It is sheer folly to position a golf bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you only cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s as the odds are usually mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” against the punter is necessary for him to produce a profit so that he can stay in business.
Computer technology has given rise to a brand new kind of betting, called “exchange betting” or “matched betting” ;.With “betting exchanges” there is no bookie to beat; in other words, there is no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere available in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet a player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can decide to do something being an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker.
With exchange betting the odds are not set with a third-party or middle-man; they’re set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they’re prepared to position bets (if they wish to do something being an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds at which they’re willing to lay bets (if they wish to do something as a bookmaker).
Because the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting site matches all the back bets with the lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited using their winnings automatically a couple of seconds after the conclusion of the big event in accordance with its result.
Obviously, the technology for providing this kind of “fair” betting service must certanly be taken care of somehow. This payment is taken in the proper execution of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses on a single event.
You will find not many betting exchanges available, however, perhaps as the exchange betting software is really complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting internet sites is Betfair, with about 90% of industry during the time of writing. Others would be the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is definitely the most used because it had been the first to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to execute accurately and instantly.
So, why does tennis betting give you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The solution, though simple, is often overlooked even by those that bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost certainly not have realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting.
In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team may then win the 2nd set by the most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by not many points (or even by winning fewer points compared to the opponents, an unusual but possible occurrence!).
This anomaly often includes a profound psychological effect on a single or both sides, which affects how they play for the following few minutes, and therefore also the betting odds requested and made available from punters on the match. This, however, is another facet of tennis betting which may be the topic of another article. This information deals with the mathematical facet of tennis betting and how exactly to win money with this particular knowledge.
The important thing is not to be only a “backer” or a “layer”, simply betting on the ultimate outcome of an event. Should you choose that, you’ll lose out as time passes, because there’s always a tiny difference involving the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there should be, otherwise there’d be no incentive proper to supply odds and there’d be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you spend on your own net winnings, and the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it’s much less great just like conventional bookmakers).
The trick to winning at tennis betting is usually to be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points throughout the event. This is another facet of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting site from the traditional bookie. At the betting exchange you are able to place a right back or lay bet at any time during the big event, right until the last second or the ultimate point. This is known as “in-play” betting.
Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for every opposing side change as the big event progresses, according to the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of just one side or the other being the eventual winner. The secret is to position a right back bet on a single side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a right back bet on the other side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. If you can achieve this, you’ll win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the big event — a genuine “win-win” scenario.
Why bet on tennis and not on other sports?
Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is great for such “swing” betting, as the odds fluctuate after each and every point is played. You will find therefore very many small swings to one side and then to the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, for example, because goals are very rare and a target shifts the bonus suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.
The more possible outcomes you will find to factor in to the equation, the more challenging it’s to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the เดิมพันไก่ชนเริ่มตัน10บาท two most widely used sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to generate income betting on tennis than on any other sport.)
Earlier it had been stated that the trick to winning at tennis betting is usually to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the big event, placing bets at different occuring times during the big event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be carried out with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.
One method used in combination with in-play betting is known as “scalping” ;.As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a little profit by backing or laying at the right moment while the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores 2 or 3 consecutive points, and repeating the process again and again. The greatest drawback of scalping is that it’s very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not merely must you spend full focus on what’s happening throughout the match by live video broadcast, but you need to also catch the right moments at which to bet, that is, actually, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the full time you place the bet and the full time it’s accepted.
Mathematics do not lie!
There are a few tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using applications, some which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), they all require the input, sooner or later, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is generally the odds at which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, giving you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.
So, how do you determine the worth of the probability factor? That, dear reader, could be the crucial point of the complete matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines if it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.
Until now, this indicates, this probability factor has must be determined by the sheer experience of a couple of seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or do not win around they might because they cannot know the EXACT value had a need to optimize their bets!
Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, in order to maximize the likelihood of winning consistently. A research on the Web for a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created the one that encompasses not only all areas of exchange betting but additionally the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a better name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to produce consistently more than 10% make money from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.